India-US Nuclear Deal, RIP?

The News
Mar 18, 2008

Just days after the United Progressive Alliance launched what looked like a determined last-ditch effort to ram through the United States-India nuclear deal, it seems ready to go into cold storage, if not into oblivion. It's almost certain to miss the US political timetable, which requires that the deal be sent to the Senate by May for ratification before the July recess. After that, it would be near-impossible to pass the deal before the November presidential election. This is a major victory for India's left parties and the peace movement, which have opposed the deal right since July 2005. It's a morale-booster for all those who questioned the wisdom of a special collaborative arrangement with the US. And it's a slap in the face of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. This is likely to alter power equations in the Congress and UPA. Irrespective of how long the UPA-Left joint committee on the deal takes to discuss it, it cannot be resuscitated unless the government has a showdown with the left. Withdrawal of the left's support will reduce the UPA to a minority. As Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee explicitly told Outlook magazine, "a minority government cannot, need not and should not sign a major agreement." For the UPA, the government's survival takes priority over the deal.