Nuclear Deal: No Clear Reason

Live Mint
Mar 16, 2008

As the United Progressive Alliance-Left joint committee on the US-India nuclear deal meets today, it’s highly unlikely that the Left will agree to any further negotiation on the agreement. Whether or not this meeting substantively discusses the safeguards (inspections) agreement drafted with the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Left’s veto will probably stand. Short of an early election, the deal is dead for all intents and purposes, at least for now. Going by Pranab Mukherjee’s recent interviews, and Sonia Gandhi’s call to the Congress to prepare for an election next year, the party’s leadership seems loath to reducing its government to a minority—and thus risk losing the deal too. Mukherjee was explicit: The Congress won’t sacrifice the government or hold mid-term elections; and “a minority government cannot, need not and should not sign a major agreement”. Thus, short of the unlikely event of Manmohan Singh, backed by P. Chidambaram, Kamal Nath and Kapil Sibal, prevailing over Gandhi and other more cautious leaders, the deal won’t be passed during George W. Bush’s presidential tenure.